A brief recap: Swinburne has so far defined what he means by "God", given an account of what he considers to be a good explanation, and argued that the God hypothesis is simple (involves few entities and few arbitrary assumptions). So far he has not given any arguments for theism, but he has set up the machinery for the special type of inductive argument he makes use of. I won't go into the mathematics here, but the idea is that you start out with a set of observations and a hypothesis you want to test. Prior to making the observations your hypothesis has a certain probability of being true, P(H!B) ("probability of H given B), where H is the hypothesis and B is the background information, i.e., what relevant knowledge you have apart from the observations to be explained. This probability is often called the prior probability of the hypothesis. If we call the observations O, what we want to find is P(H!O,B), the probability of the hypothesis being true given the observations and the background information. This can be difficult to estimate, but Bayes' theorem states that
P(H!O,B) = P(O!H,B)P(H!B) / P(O!B)
This makes it possible to at least assess whether the observations increase or decrease the probability of H being true relative to its value on the background knowledge alone if we can estimate how likely the observations are given the hypothesis. A good hypothesis should make the observations we have made very probable.
This kind of reasoning is frequently used when testing models against data in my field of research, cosmology. Based on my experience there are three points I would like to make.
First, in cosmology we have ways of assigning precise numerical values to these probabilites. In Swinburne's case the notion of a good fit to the "data" is going to be much more vague. Second, note the dependence on the prior, i.e., how probable we thought the hypothesis to be prior to making the observations. In cases where we have good data (e.g. precise measurements and a lot of them) the prior doesn't play a huge role. Even if we were way off in our initial assumption, the data will be able to tell us so and put us on the right track. But if the data are less precise our estimate of the probability of the hypothesis after the observations is going to be dominated by the prior. So the quality of the data has to be good. And if we don't have a precise notion of what it means for a model to be a good fit to the observations this problem gets worse.
Finally, the whole procedure does not make sense if the prior probability of the hypothesis is zero of undefined. If we know from the outset that our hypothesis is impossible, then no amount of data can make it probable. And if we cannot assign a value to the prior, it doesn't make sense to say that the data increase or decrease the probability of the hypothesis. I think that the fact that we have not seen a single example of non-embodied minds means that the probability of the God hypothesis is undefined.
Swinburne obviously thinks differently. He doesn't assign a specific value to the prior, but he must certainly assume it is some positive value. But unless his observations have large discriminatory power the final probability he assigns to his hypothesis is going to be dominated by his prior. In other words, Swinburne will think that God likely exists because he thought so at the outset.
After these lengthy introductory comments I will now start on chapter 4, "How the existence of God explains the world and its order". Swinburne starts off thus:
It is extraordinary that there should exist anything at all. Surely the most natural state of affairs is simply nothing: no universe, no God, no nothing. But there is something. And so many things. Maybe chance could have thrown up the odd electron. BUT so many particles!The last two paragraphs reveal a surprising lack of understanding of physics. If one particle can appear spontaneously, there is no reason why not more can provided conservation of charge, energy, momentum etc. are fulfilled. But my main beef is with the first two paragraphs. The more I think about it, the more certain I feel that it doesn't make much sense to be puzzled about why there is something rather than nothing. Is "nothing" a real option? We know that there is something now. And as far back as we can make observations there has been something. The statement "There is something" is true at all times in the history of the universe. Swinburne is entitled to feel that this is an extraordinary state of affairs, but something more than personal incredulity is required for serious arguments for the existence of a deity.
A discussion of why materialism cannot answer this question follows. Again it reveals Swinburne's muddled understanding of modern physics where he tries to make things that are fairly well understood (e.g. why electrons don't spontaneously change into photons) appear mysterious. I am, however, willing to concede what I think is the main point, namely that physics cannot explain physics. The dispute is really about whether it makes sense to look for a "deeper" explanation, and whether the God hypothesis can provide it.
Swinburne now argues that the God hypothesis makes the existence of a universe of the kind we live in likely. If God exists he can create any kind of universe (or not), and clearly (according to Swinburne) it is a good thing to create a universe with humans. Hence God will do it. Several objections can be raised against this.
First of all, note that the state of nothing that Swinburne regards as the most natural state of affairs also implies there being no God. Thus, he has not provided a full answer to the question of why there is something rather than nothing. He has merely said that if we start out with God instead of nothing, we should also expect to find that there is a universe. But why God instead of nothing? Swinburne to his credit does not think that the existence of God is logically necessary. But he thinks God is a necessary being in the sense that he does not depend on anything else for his existence. Nothing can cause him to exist or cease to exist. There is a conservation law for deities. This, however, can at best explain why God, if he exists, is eternal. As long as the statement "There is no God" does not entail a logical contradiction, God's existence still needs an explanation unless you postulate it as a brute fact. And if you do allow that, why is it wrong to postulate the existence of a universe as a brute fact? Given the obscurity of the notion of God, and the relative simplicity of the universe in the first stages of the Big Bang, it is not obvious that theism is more intellectually satisfying than materialism.
Another objection is that it is not obvious why God should create just the kind of universe we find ourselves to be living in. Being omnipotent God can create any kind of universe allowed by the rules of logic. Swinburne is aware of this, but says that there are some classes of universe that God will prefer. For example, he will prefer universes with conscious beings capable of choosing freely between good and evil to lifeless universes. But within the preferred class God can pick and choose as he pleases. The only problem, at least as I see it, is that Swinburne has deprived his God of desires. This makes it hard to see how God can be driven to choose at all between two objectively equally good alternatives. If God has no personal whims, then what can possibly move him to pick one alternative above another? This is a recurring problem in Swinburne's book. He seems to underestimate the role played by desires in making us act. Obviously he thinks God is very different from humans, but we are the only personal beings we have any experience with, and this experience is our only guide when assessing Swinburne's arguments. Swinburne seems to think that if universe A is better than nothing, then that fact alone is enough to make God create universe A. But if I ask why this is so, the answer has to be that either this is because God desires the good (so he has desires after all) or because there is a sense in which universe A is
objectively good compared to nothing and a mechanism (not only a rule, because rules can be disobeyed) that forces God to choose the objectively good. If the latter is the case, then surely God is limited by more than the laws of logic.
Swinburne makes an excursion into the fine-tuning argument, but since I have written at length about this earlier I will just note that his version of it suffers from the same weaknesses as any other and refer to the
article I co-authored with Steve Zara for details.
Towards the end of the chapter there is a discussion of the Hawking-Hartle "No Boundary Proposal" for the initial conditions of the universe. Swinburne's discussion is based on Hawking's popular exposition of the model in "A brief history of time", and sadly it seems that Swinburne has misunderstood it completely as he seems to think that Hawking suggests that time is cyclical. This is not what the proposal suggests at all. What it does say is that when you take quantum mechanics into account, you can get a universe much like ours spontaneously appearing from a state with no space, time or matter. Furthermore, you can construct a model where the universe has a finite past but no beginning in time. Again Swinburne shows that his understanding of physics is seriously lacking.
Swinburne closes the chapter as follows:
Note that I am not postulating a "God of the gaps", a god merely to explain the things which science has not yet explained. I am postulating a God to explain what science explains; I do not deny that science explains, but I postulate God to explain why science explains. The very success of science in showing us how deeply orderly the natural world is provides strong grounds for believing that there is an even deeper cause of that order.I beg to differ. Swinburne doesn't even bother to look for a gap. He just postulates that there is one. In spite of the fact that there has not been a single moment in time when the universe did not exist, Swinburne thinks that this state of affairs is somehow unnatural. Apparently it is much more natural that a non-physical personal being with infinite powers exists, and that this person without any comprehensible motives creates the universe we find ourselves living in. Swinburne concludes that the existence of God makes the existence of our universe probably. Apart from all the other objections I find that on his definition of God it is without extra assumptions impossible to estimate the probability of God doing anything at all.